Transnational Threats
Transnational crimes such as drug trafficking, maritime piracy and arms and human trafficking pose a new and worrying threat to international security. As we see in settings as varied as Afghanistan, Somalia, the Sahel, and Mexico, technological and social change offer opportunities for criminals to work with politicians, businessmen and even terrorists, creating transnational networks that organize violence in new and challenging ways.
Beginning in 2012 the Forum will be developing a new project on transnational threats (TNTs) to explore why, when, and how transnational violence occurs, and to identify promising and practical solutions.
This project will build on the Forum’s successful practice of promoting international cooperation to counter the emerging sources of fear in a globalized security landscape: transnational criminal, insurgent, gang, and vigilante violence. Both the 2011 Global Burden of Armed Violence Report and the World Bank’s 2011 World Development Report make clear that people are at greater risk of violent death, and countries are at greater risk of armed conflict and prolonged under-development, where such violence takes hold. In 2011, only three of the top ten countries, as ranked by the violent death rate, were countries experiencing armed conflict; the rest were threatened by transnational crime and other sources of violence.
Our core areas of focus:
Our initial focus is on the interplay of transnational organized crime (including drug trafficking and maritime piracy), terrorism, and political instability.
We aim to fill a gap in existing analytical capabilities. Where other organizations focus on the impact of TNTs on one location, we use market analysis, organizational analysis, and strategic theory to explain how illegal violent organizations operate in multiple locations. We identify opportunities for improved cooperation by states, communities and the private sector to control these transnational threats and their impacts.
Our work is conducted in three ways:
Threat Analysis. We draw on our existing global network of high-level specialists from government, academia, and NGOs and supplement this with targeted fieldwork to develop customized assessments of specific transnational threats that account for both local context and international dynamics. We combine transnational reach with expertise drawn from:
- counterterrorism
- war studies
- defense analysis
- community relations
- criminal investigations and law enforcement
- financial and market analysis
- organizational management and strategy.
We will produce policy briefs and other publications to enrich global discussions of specific TNTs. Early examples of our work in this area include:
- providing substantive advice to political and business leaders on transnational threats in West Africa and the Sahel;
- a six-month research project based on field interviews and research on the risks arising from Somali remittance practices; and
- analysis of the impacts of organized crime on Pakistani governance and development (work in progress).
Policy Guidance. The Forum’s long history of full-spectrum engagement – from affected communities and small business entrepreneurs at the grassroots, to international policy-makers in the United Nations Security Council and in the boardrooms of Fortune 500 multinational enterprises – allows us to develop balanced policy analysis and recommendations for both rapid and long-term response to these threats. Examples of such work include:
- collaboration with Security Council members and UN officials on the threat to international peace and security posed by trafficking networks in West Africa and the Sahel; and
- research conducted with the UN Department on Political Affairs on the role of EU, OSCE and UN political missions in responding to transnational threats.
Insights. We aim to improve global understanding of when, how and why violence is being transnationalized. Based on insights developed in our threat analysis and policy guidance work, and subject to confidentiality restrictions, we aim to stimulate analysis of how violence is organized transnationally, and what it means for international and private sector responses. Examples of our work in this area include:
- a book examining the relationship between peace operations and organized crime; and
- a chapter in a forthcoming Cambridge University Press volume, exploring strategic lessons from military responses to gangs and drug violence in Haiti.
The project is led by James Cockayne, who will also continue to serve as a Senior Fellow in the Forum’s Center on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation. Cockayne is a lawyer, researcher, and strategist who has spent the last decade working in governmental, civil society, an international organizations to improve international responses to transnational threats. His previous roles include work on these issues with the International Peace Institute, the Transnational Crime Unit and the Extradition Unit in the Australian Attorney-General’s Department, and as Chair of the Editorial Committee of the Journal of International Criminal Justice.
For additional information, please contact James at jdrc@fourthfreedomforum.org
